The Long View: Five Predictions for 2030

After the tremendous response we received for our Twenty Predictions for 2020 (and finally getting our pick for the Oscars correct), we are pleased to share a follow-up to the original post that fits with our long-term outlook. Extending the window out ten years, our predictions for 2030 are listed below and based broadly on the intersection between existential pressures and technology. We wish you great health, happiness, and luck in what is already shaping up to be an exciting decade.

1. Systematic investment strategies will expand from public to private markets. Venture capital and private equity are more accessible than ever, and the data-rich footprints these asset classes leave behind offer an opportunity set that’s ripe for systematic investing. Modern methods of analysis will transform a landscape long dominated by visionary storytellers who make big bets that rarely payoff, and data-driven approaches will flourish.
2. Geoengineering solutions will be developed by companies to address the climate crisis. Few commercial ventures have taken on issues of such scale in the past, but a lack of progress towards a sustainable planet has only made this outcome more likely in the future. The huge amounts of capital accumulated by the world’s wealthiest people will combine with similarly sized egos to drive moonshot geoengineering investments as they seek to save the planet.
3. The US economy will not automate away all of its jobs. The trend toward automation is not reversing anytime soon and will continue to displace workers over the next decade. This dynamic, however, is nothing new as machines have been taking over repeatable tasks since the industrial revolution. A key strength of the US workforce Wavelength Insights February 11, 2019 has always been its ability to adapt and contribute in areas where people maintain an advantage. This strength will hold true as the workforce retools, and instead of competing with machines, people will use them to be more efficient.
4. Facial recognition will eliminate privacy as we know it. Social networks have lost control of our personal data, and machine learning algorithms are moving quickly to monetize this. The use of facial recognition by law enforcement to catch criminals provides an initial rationale that will open the door for less ethical uses to proliferate. While regulation on this front may slow some bad actors, we are likely to face a new reality with less control of how our identities can be used against us.
5. Whatever ends up happening will feel like an inevitable conclusion to long-standing pressures. Hindsight offers the clearest view of the forest for the trees, and the next decade will be no exception. The causes of market meltdowns – such as risky mortgages and CDOs in 2008 – often feel obvious after the fact but are much harder to identify in the moment. We can’t predict exactly what will cause the next downturn but are well-aware of mounting pressures on financial assets, and it’s these long-term dynamics are worth watching closely as they play out into the future. 

***